The UMNO secretary-general Datuk Seri Radzi Sheikh Ahmad has resigned; Iron Lady cum Wanita Umno chief Datuk Seri Rafidah Aziz was dropped from the new Cabinet; two deputies refused to join the Cabinet; Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah intends to contest the presidency of the UMNO; former Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim claimed that at least five BN members prepared to join the opposition bench.

All these signs highlight the BN internal disputes after the announcement of the “surprising” cabinet line-up. The aftermath of the elections setbacks seems to be continue, and it may have further troubles.

UMNO won 79 of 117 seats in the recent elections, with the successful rate of 67.5%. Of course its results is not as good as the almost 100% victory of the BN in East Malaysia, but its performance was still the best among the four component parties in West Malaysia. Nevertheless, the loss of 38 seats is indeed a great insult to the UMNO who has used to one-party dominance.

Therefore, Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi becomes the target of public criticism in the coming party elections which will be held sooner or later. Even the MCA's Dato' Seri Ong Ka Ting, MIC's Dato' Seri S. Samy Vellu and Gerakan's Tan Sri Dr. Koh Tsu Koon strongly feel the internal pressure from the party.

It is within our expectation that Kelantan will fall into the hand of the PAS. However, the UMNO is really unprepared and even shocked when Selangor, Perak, Penang and Kedah were taken by the opposition. The fall of Penang and Selangor governments further means that many vested interest groups would lost many of their vested interests. Frustrated party members see the turning point within the situation and may take this opportunity to create trouble.

Therefore, it is reasonable and within expectation that the Prime Minister cum UMNO President Abdullah will become the target of various criticisms from the inside and outside of the party. However, he has said clearly that he would only resign only if he lost in the party elections. Otherwise, he is still the UMNO president and can continue to serve as the Prime Minister logically.

The facts have proved that at least Abdullah is still in power. The new cabinet line-up has demonstrated his unusual tough side. He risks his political future to make the changes, and he has also brought in unpredictable variables to the country political ecology, especially for the UMNO. Would UMNO enter into another troubled times? Where should the Malaysia's democracy go to? The people are very worried about it.

The direction of several UMNO key persons, including the “Iron Lady” Rafidah, the Deputy Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak and Umno Youth chief Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Tun Hussein deserve our close attention.

“I would rather not to contest if I were to be dropped from the Cabinet”. Is Rafidah really so open-minded and willing to allow the new successor to take over her position? Would she gather the force of frustrated members within the party and wait for the opportunity to stage a comeback? Do not forget, this strong woman was once resurged strongly after she had lost in party elections. It shows her toughness and uncompromising political vitality. She has said categorically that she won't resign from the party position after she lost the Minister position. Would it be her strong message that “I will be back”?

Every move of the Deputy Prime Minister is affecting the whole situation. The people are suspicious when he did not accompany the Prime Minister in announcing the new cabinet line-up. The people are further concerned if the Prime Minister would announce his successor in advance to stabilise the situation. His cousin UMNO Youth chief Hishammuddin has publicly declared after the elections that “UMNO Youth will not recommend Khairy (the son-in-law of the Prime Minister) as minister. However, the appointment of ministers is the power of the Prime Minister”.

In Malaysia, no general elections results have caused such a new structure that the people are looking forward to it and are worried at the same time. No Cabinet reshuffle have caused such acute scrutiny and speculations. The new Cabinet allows us to see some clues, but we are still unable to fully grasp the future development direction of the UMNO and the country. After all, UMNO is still the backbone of Malaysian politics. The people create a small part of the history through their votes in the recent elections. There are still a majority of the history to be written. It has to depend on the wisdom and the stage performance of all the political parties especially the UMNO in this crucial historical stage.

When many people are still immersing themselves in the new political structure, I am afraid to say that our political reality has yet to dawn completely. The development of democracy still has a large number of variables. It is really difficult to predict if it is good or bad for these crises within the new structure. (By LIM MUN FAH/ Translated by LEE MEI NYEE/ Sin Chew Daily)