By TAY TIAN YAN
Translated by SOONG PHUI JEE
Sin Chew Daily
Firstly, when would the next general election be held?
The possibility of the election to fall in the dragon head (March) has been reduced; the dragon body (June) is an opportunity, but if the situation is not good, it might be delayed to the dragon tail (year end).
Last week, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak told the Wall Street Journal that it is not the time for the election yet.
It seems like the possibility to have the election in March is low. At this stage, the Prime Minister and the BN lack the "feel good" factors and it is too risky to hold the election now.
Economically, the current market is cheerless. The favourable factors brought by the government earlier have not played much role and the effects seem to have been fading away.
The global economy is slowing down. Although the Europe debt crisis has been temporary eased up, no one knows whether it would start worsening again.
The government might have new incentives in the coming months to create a feeling good atmosphere, as a preparation for the election.
Politically, the National Feedlot Centre (NFC) issue, as well as money politics scandals involving the ruling parties have brought negative impacts to the BN.
The acquittal of alternative coalition's leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim brings both positive and negative impacts to the ruling coalition. The effects are still under observation.
After the political climate is improved and before the economic condition turns bad, it will be the best timing for Najib to announce the election. June is a target.
If they fail to make it in June, then they will have to delay it until the end of the year.
Secondly, has Anwar's sodomy case ended? Would the prosecuting team of the trial appeal against the High Court's decision?
The government and the internal Umno might have different views.
The moderates think that it should stop here as although they have lost in court, they have at least tarnished Anwar's image in the conservative Malay community.
He has failed to become a "martyr" and gain sympathy from the public after the acquittal. Perhaps, he would be more difficult to deal with if he is jailed.
Of course, it could also show the judicial independence of Malaysia and promote Najib's reform slogans.
As for the hard-liners, they think it should not stop here as it would be a nightmare for the BN if Anwar continues to stay active.
The hard work of the prosecuting team over the past three years has come to naught and to defend its reputation, they tend to make appeal.
However, it seems that Najib would take the first stand. After all, he does not want another storm to disrupt his election deployment.
Thirdly, would there be a Bersih 3.0 rally?
Bersih 2.0 co-chairperson Datuk S. Ambiga has recently threatened to hold another street demonstration if election-reform measures are not carried out. Meanwhile, Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department Datuk Seri Nazri Abdul Aziz warned that it will have to face the law if it takes to the streets again.
It does not mean that the Bersih 3.0 has raised its curtain. Instead, they are playing psychology to test each other's movements and bottom lines.
In Ambiga's side, she has to maintain the heat of the Bersih 2.0 while pushing the reform progress. She has to put in more efforts, particularly when the Parliamentary Select Committee (PSC) is in the process of deliberations.
As for the government, it would not stimulate public emotions to create an opportunity for the Bersih 2.0 to gain more support. Therefore, discussions are expected to replace confrontations.
That is why, it is not a good time for the Bersih 3.0.
