Today the courts will hear the EC’s application for a stay of the Kota Siputeh by election. As we know Monday 16 Nov the Kuala Lumpur High court ordered the by by-election. The Kota Siputeh assemblyman, UMNO’s Abu Hasan Sarit had gone AWOL twice from Kedah state legislative meetings. Before this, state assembly Speaker Abdul Isa Ismail had wanted the seat vacant following Abu Hasan’s absence. But the EC ruled that Abu Hasan was still the “legitimate” assemblyman.

Hence Monday’s High court ruling was a blow to the EC.Not to mention UMNO/BN. Why, last week, BN No.2 man Muhyiddin Yassin was on record to say that Abu Hasan will attend the Kedah state sitting as the EC had ruled in “our favour”. Anyway if the by election in Kota Siputeh is held as ordered, then it will be the biggest to date. Reasons are aplenty and we will get to that in a while.

Of all the by elections held so far since the March 8 2008 GE, which was the biggest ? To some it was the Permatang Pauh polls ? Well, yes as it marked Anwar Ibrahim’s return to parliament. Others say Bagan Pinang because UMNO won after successive defeats. Agreed. But to me it was the Kuala Terengganu by election . The seat was UMNO held, winning it in the March GE. But at the by election UMNO could not defend it. Losing to PAS. Meaning an extra seat for PAS and a further slide of UMNO. In the other by elections since March 8, the victors were from the party which had won it earlier ie “incumbents” successfully defending their seats.

Now here comes Kota Siputeh. Following lots of fanfare that UMNO are already on the mend with reforms in place, this will provide the party the acid test. Can they defend the seat ? On paper they should. With or without reforms in the party. Simply because they won it “ even during bad times in UMNO”. Now it’s “good times.”So it seems.

But Kedah is PR country. The court ruling is already a “victory’. At least that’s how many see it. And Abu Hasan’s not attending state assembly is not good for UMNO, to say the least. He might have his “reasons” for being absent ( he submitted medical leave certificates) but many folks in Kedah are saying the UMNO man has “failed to do his job” and “had let down” the very people who voted for him in the last GE.

Still to say the seat is “ripe” to be picked easily by PAS or whoever the PR candidate might be, is not entirely right either. Premature or arrogant even. While BN components are in a mess, UMNO have “got back their former strength’, as said earlier. At least that’s what is being said and potrayed.

The PR on the other hand are also in a mess. That’s what we are told and based on reports we get in the media. Can they get their act back on track? On time ? Still the PAS led PR government in Kedah seem to be “doing all right” with no big issues haunting them. That’s at state level. At national stage things are a bit different.

There are issues concerning PAS as a party, “ready” to be exploited by the BN. However considering Kota Siputeh is a Muslim/Malay majority constituency and by elections’ issues are usually “local interest related” , the PR candidate in Kedah will not be severely “hurt” by the BN onslaught. But there’s always the non Muslim/Malay voter factor.

To say a fierce battle is in store is an under statement.
(By MOHSIMN ABDULLAH,MySinchew,/i>)