According to a recent Merdeka Centre poll, if there is a by-election for the Kota Siputeh state seat, Pakatan Rakyat will have to face a setback in the 10th by-election since the 8 March general elections.

The polling results show that Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak's approving rating remains at 60% and BN may regain two-thirds majority in Parliament. The results also show that 64% of Malays, 36% of Chinese and 68% of Indians are satisfied with Najib's performance. As 91.69% of Kota Siputeh voters are Malays, 7.46% are Chinese and 0.85% are Indians, if the results are accurate, BN can easily keep its fortress here.

Why BN is able to climb up from the bottom 20 months later while Pakatan Rakyat is declining? The reason is, Najib has done something (regardless whether they are effective) to win the people's support while Pakatan Rakyat has done too little but exposed too much of its weaknesses. It is unstable and as a result, its credibility has been weakening.

According to the survey, 47% of people do not believe that Pakatan Rakyat can replace BN as the federal government and only 46% of people are satisfied with Pakatan Rakyat's performance in the four states it rules. From this point, Pakatan Rakyat must work harder to avoid being defeated.

Pakatan Rakyat members are facing a lot of problems, including the lack of unified guiding principles and leadership, loose organisations, no performance in its ruling states and failure in implementing the reform commitment.

Opposition leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim is as well aware of the crisis and thus, he has stopped going abroad recently. Instead, he meets with party members, warns those with poor performance and put in efforts to integrate Pakatan Rakyat. When he was standing on the peak, Anwar looked down on Najib's revival. And only now, he is busy handling the problems and serving as Selangor's economic adviser. Hopefully, it is not too late. Although PAS spiritual adviser Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat is old, he still knows how to use the “showdown strategy”, forcing PAS President Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang and others to return to the right path and continue cooperating with Pakatan Rakyat. Comparatively, Anwar seems weak.

Anwar has been too tolerant to the party's internal struggle for power and factional problems. He even allowed political frogs to quit the party and lead to the fall of Perak government. It might be a prodding tactic for Datuk Zaid Ibrahim to say that Nik Aziz, instead of Anwar, should helm Pakatan Rakyat after its registration. It seems unreasonable asking a 78-year-old elder, who lives a strict religious life, to lead Pakatan Rakyat.

In order to resolve the crisis, Pakatan Rakyat's organisation must first be strengthened. After its registration, Pakatan Rakyat may set up a supreme council formed by leaders from the three component parties. They can hold an annual general assembly attended by representatives elected by their respective parties. They can even allow the Central Delegates of the three parties to vote for the Chairman position of Pakatan Rakyat. Framing the organisation allows the three parties to work as a team and reduce internal conflicts.

After the construction of the organisation, Pakatan Rakyat may gather its resources and focus on developing the four states, resolving people's livelihood problems and fighting economy. Selangor and Penang are important economic areas and thus, their development models should not be the same as the one used in Kelantan. Pakatan Rakyat will collapse at any moment if it focuses only on revealing inside stories of former state governments and declassifying documents while fails to fulfil its reform commitment and solve the people's problems.

There are still some time before the next general elections and it is too early to say now who will be the next ruler. The key is, who can come out with best performance, particularly in economy and livelihood issues, before the next general elections? (By LIM SUE GOAN/Translated by SOONG PHUI JEE/Sin Chew Daily)