MANILA, PHILIPPINES: A new year marks new hope, and Filipino consumer confidence is at a high despite the global economic downturn.

There will indeed be winners and losers given the perfect financial storm that is expected to linger this year -- and here are the nine sectors that are likely to be resilient:

• Market-leading brands in various categories that enjoy high awareness levels with no indications of slowing down in 2009. Recessions come and go, in various generations and times. It is how one responds to the economic crisis that makes one successful.

Marketing cases document how a number of brands have profited during recession. Philip Morris gained market share during the 1970s downturn by maintaining advertising and marketing spend, while its competitors watched and waited. Nike in the 1990s tripled its marketing spend resulting in profits nine times higher during recession.

• Local companies and brands in various categories with a differentiating, relevant brand story to tell and guts to overcome fear of investing. Regional and global brands are likely to prioritise their present strong markets over new, developing markets. This presents an opportunity for a challenger or follower brand in a market dominated by a global brand.

Then again, Asia may just become the favourite destination for global brands, having a better economic forecast than elsewhere in the world. Still, local brands with fervor and passion must work to maintain, if not grow, what they do have.

• Brands with an economic story, so long as they are told in a relevant way and with an adequate share of voice to reach potential target markets. Do-it-yourself (DIY) retail shops and economic substitutes in categories like food and beverage, healthcare, retail fashion, etc, are likely to be resilient.

• Home entertainment versus out of home. Even in times of crisis, people have a natural tendency to want to feel good and indulge oneself once in a while. Modeling and duplicating fun experiences in-home, once enjoyed out of home in prosperous times, isn’t all too bad particularly when one can control and restrict expenses more effectively. Likely to benefit are convenience, instant meals; food deliveries; home entertainment and gaming; home furnishings, house wares and repairs, etc.

• Personal care, toiletries and beauty products and services, including spa, skin, body and hair care, etc. Filipinos, in good and bad times, are keen about their physical appearance. This must be because Filipinos are generally proud. Despite economic adversity and skipped meals, if it can be helped, one is not about to drastically reduce consumption in this area.

• Health is wealth as most people know and have experienced. Even in economic adversity, if it can be managed, consumers will continue to support healthcare brands that they trust. Particularly in an economic crisis, people value their health as this guarantees them sustained livelihood. Despite possible dips, the healthcare category, particularly those that have built their brand’s image in various categories that include preventive and therapeutic healthcare, nutraceutical and medical services shall remain relatively resilient.

• Education is the source of sustainable development and for many centuries has been proven to help many individuals and nations rise out of poverty. Demand for education services will continue to rise as many seek to improve their skills. This windfall is likely to be enjoyed largely by educational institutions and experts who have become trusted brands.

• Travel, lodging and travel-related services will remain above water. While business travel will be restricted substantially, with businesses opting to maximise communication technology and shift downward to economy travel, lodging and services, the demand for leisure remains, provided it is sustained with far more creativity, eg, new and exciting closer to home foreign and local destinations; shift from high-margin to low-margin but high-value business strategy for travel agencies for local and overseas leisure travel, etc.

• Indulgent and luxury brands with authentic, socially responsible causes. Even the wealthy have become suddenly conscious about inconspicuous spending as much of the world is expected to go into recession. Nonetheless, pleasurable shopping is given a new twist by helping sustain authentic causes with every purchase, e.g., saving the environment, alleviating poverty, providing sustainable livelihood, etc.
(By KAREN DE ASIS/ The Philippines Daily Inquirer/ ANN)