Obama’s victory was greeted with high hopes and expectations in most of Asia. But fears were also expressed that his regime would herald the resurgence of protectionist policies in Washington.

Nov 5 was a particularly special day for students of SDN Menteng 01 in Central Jakarta, Indonesia. They prayed for two days since 3 Nov for the victory of their alumnus, Barack Hussein ‘Barry’ Obama, in the US elections. And it was now time to see whether their prayers were heeded.

After sometime the results were out and a sense of relief and joy were evident in their faces. They felt their prayers were answered.

Although the students here do not personally know Obama, they find themselves closely related to him because of his ties to this school. It was where Obama was enrolled as a third-grader in 1968 after he moved to Indonesia at the age of six with his mother Ann Dunham and his Indonesian stepfather Lolo Soetoro. He previously attended the Fransiskus Asisi Catholic School in Jakarta.

Israella Dharmawan, 63, Obama’s former teacher at Fransiskus Asisi School, where the US president-elect had spent his first year in the elementary, said she was proud and touched by Obama’s win.

“I hope to see him become a good president and keep his campaign promises,” she said, adding he was good, cheerful and easygoing as a young boy.

Like Israella many in Asia shared the joyous victory of the first African-American president-elect. In New Delhi hundreds of his supporters glued to the television screen in the American Centre erupted into chants of “Obama! Obama!” soon after it was announced that Obama won. Residents of Japanese town, Obama—which translates to “little beach” in English—also roared into “Yes We Can! Obama!” after the final results were announced. Similar excitement was outpoured by his ardent supporters in the Philippines, Hong Kong and Thailand.

But as the election euphoria from Obama’s presidential election victory subsided, more sober questions emerged. For instance, what does the return of the Democrats to the White House after eight years’ absence signal for Asia? Will trade protectionism take hold in the US?

Tao Wenzhao, a researcher at the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing, said: “I am a bit worried that Obama will take some tough positions on trade issues.”

Although Obama in an October 2008 presidential debate said that “not only is it impossible to turn back the tide of globalisation, but efforts to do so can make us worse off”. In 2007 he was quoted as saying that “people don’t want a cheaper T-shirt if they’re losing their jobs in the process”. During the election campaign, he also frequently repeated that he would “eliminate tax breaks for companies that are moving jobs overseas”.

These protectionist statements have caused worry in India, which is enjoying astounding growth rates in recent years on the back of outsourcing giants that generate 60% of their revenues from the US. There are also similar concerns in the Philippines that Obama would target the outsourcing of jobs in a bid to protect American jobs during a period of recession.

China and South Korea are not optimistic either. During the election campaign, Obama openly opposed a US-South Korea free trade agreement and pledged to use US trade laws to press China to allow its currency to revalue, prompting concerns on US-China ties.

The Democrats are very critical of the Korea-US free trade deal and call it ‘badly flawed’ which fails to address an imbalance in the two countries’ car trade. And Obama had personally said that “massive current account surpluses accumulated by China are directly related to its manipulation of its currency’s value”. In other words, Obama wants China to stop keeping its currency weak.

But Chinese government argues that a further rise in the yuan will likely put the country at an even greater risk. Since China scrapped the peg between the yuan and the US dollar, the currency has gained about 20% against the greenback. In recent months, it has also appreciated against the euro, the currency of China’s biggest trading partner. This pushed up the prices of Chinese exports, leading to the closure of thousands of factories in coastal areas and rendering thousands jobless.

“We hope that the policy of free trade will continue to be adhered to. We must prevent trade protectionism, which is no good for either side,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Qin Gang recently said.

Today, everyone is hoping that the Chinese government’s wishes would come true. But if Obama stays adamant on his protectionist trade policy even after assuming office on 20 Jan, Asian countries that largely depend on exports for its economic growth will suffer severely. This can mean more job cuts and lower economic growth.

But, there are also possibilities that many of the assumptions about the new US President’s policies on trading with Asia may no longer be valid in the future. Former US president Bill Clinton, a Democrat, also opposed the North American Free Trade Agreement during his presidential campaign. But he supported the deal after he took office.

Obama’s ‘Buy American’ stance could come across as protectionist but, in practice, there will not be too many changes in trade policies with Asia, said Roman Scott, resident economist at the Singapore British Chamber of Commerce.

“You don’t want to make enemies in Asia or with China. There’s a lot of talk on the yuan, but Bush didn’t get very far with that. And I don’t think Obama will push this agenda,” he said. (ANN/ AsiaNews)

(With reports from ANN members.)