Reports of Kim watching a soccer match fails to douse speculations over of the North Korean leader’s health.

North Korean official media reported the public appearance of Kim Jong-il on October 4, breaking a 51-day silence that had touched off wild speculations in the outside world about his health and a possible power vacuum in the totalitarian regime. And yet, the news release by Pyongyang propagandists on Kim watching a soccer match between Kim Il-sung University and Pyongyang Railroad College did not remove all doubts about his condition.

The report released by the Korean Central News Agency and carried by most state media revealed that “the generalship”—the most common honorific attached to (Military Commission) Chairman Kim—praised the collegiate players. But the news item was missing a few key elements, such as where and when the soccer match took place, and there were neither photographs nor video footage of the event. It even roused speculation that Kim could have watched the game via a TV broadcast.

We may have to wait until October 10, the anniversary of the North Korean Workers’ Party, an occasion in which Kim has usually made public appearances in the past. His absence from the 60th anniversary of the DPRK’s foundation on September 9 drew international attention to the North’s absolute leader after incessant reports about his health problems in recent years.

The reason why we in the South and the outside world are so concerned about the status of the North’s chief is that he is solely accountable for all the miseries there since he took power 14 years ago upon the death of his father Kim Il-sung. He is responsible for the starvation-level economic adversities, extreme human rights abuses and the blind pursuit of nuclear armament that further isolated the regime. Therefore, a North Korea without Kim Jong-il would be easier for the international community to help and for South Koreans to contemplate reunification with.

On the other hand, there are realistic considerations related to the consequences of a transition from decades of absolute rule by a family to an inevitable collective leadership by an incongruous group, one consisting of the ruler’s ill-prepared children and spouse, as well as former aides from the party and military. The most likely eventuality in the event of an implosion in the North is broad intervention by China in the name of emergency economic aid and maintaining order.

The long absence of Kim Jong-il from the public prompted Seoul and all concerned parties to focus their studies on what role China will play if and when the North’s absolute leader exits. The spate of speculation over the past month about the future of North Korea has taught South Koreans that a collapse of the regime may not automatically lead to the unification of the Korean Peninsula, which they had long taken for granted.

The government of South Korean President Lee Myung-bak will have to keep closer watch on the North to gain accurate information on what is taking place there, beyond confirmation that Kim Jong-il was able to brush his teeth on his own or stand unaided, which was nearly all its intelligence apparatus offered us during the past few weeks. Moreover, the government should make attaining international support for Korean unification its top diplomatic task in the hazy years ahead. (The Korea Herald/ AsiaNews)