One day to September 16, and Malaysians are on tenterhooks for D-Day in opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim's high-stakes gamble to topple the Barisan Nasional (BN) government.

September 16--Malaysia Day--is his self-declared deadline for taking over power at the centre by wooing at least 30 BN MPs to his opposition Pakatan Rakyat coalition.

Will it happen? Anwar himself is not saying.

He sidestepped the issue neatly on Saturday, by saying that the opposition will move "in accordance with constitutional provisions and the mandate that we have".

"The priority is political stability. It's not an issue of deferring, we have the numbers to move," he said.

The BN has consistently brushed off the prospect.

Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi will be in Penang tomorrow (September 16) while his deputy Najib Razak is keeping to his scheduled programmes.

Nevertheless, the run-up to September 16 has been tense, against the backdrop of the government's Internal Security Act (ISA) swoop against a blogger, a journalist, and an opposition politician.

Anwar has accused the government of creating fear to thwart his plans.

So far, he has offered no proof that he has enough MPs, and the only people to have crossed over are not in Parliament.

If not a single MP crosses over tomorrow, his credibility will take a hit, though not severely. He has a ready justification--the ISA crackdown.

The September 16 deadline was announced several months ago, possibly intended as a clear deadline for potential defectors to get off the fence.

It is a symbolic gesture for East Malaysia--where most of the defectors are expected to come from--as it was on that day in 1963 that Sabah and Sarawak joined Malaysia.

But increasingly, it looks like it will be a deadline missed. The most likely crossover was the Sabah Progressive Party, which has two MPs. But it said it will only decide whether to remain in the BN on September 17 when it holds an internal meeting.

The BN has 140 MPs, and the opposition has 81 with one independent.

It was always going to be an uphill battle to get 30 MPs to jump sides, and in reality, Anwar needs many more to form a stable government that is acceptable to the Malays.

Political analyst Wong Chin Huat, from Monash University in Malaysia has estimated that Anwar would need about 49 crossovers for a comfortable majority with a strong Muslim presence.

Anwar has been targeting the Sabah and Sarawak MPs who are unhappy about being marginalised in the federal government despite contributing a total of 54, or one-third, of the BN seats.

Sabah is seen as richer pickings for Anwar as the state's political scene has always been less stable. It has been speculated that some 10 MPs could come from en-bloc defection of the small parties and individual MPs from the larger parties.

Sarawak, which is under the tight grip of its long-time chief minister Taib Mahmud, is less likely to see a mass crossover though rumours abound about a handful of bumiputera MPs.

All in all, though, it is unlikely that the two states will be able to yield the requisite 30 MPs, and more critically, enough Malay-Muslim MPs.

Of the 54 East Malaysian MPs, only 23 are Muslims. And a good number of them are very likely to stay loyal to the BN.

The remainder must, thus, come from the Peninsula.

Anwar has insisted that he has pledges from some Peninsula MPs, sparking panic in the BN. Peninsula MPs form the backbone of the BN, and 65 of the 85 MPs are from Umno.

It would be a real coup if he poaches from his former party, and they would be Malay-Muslim.

It is impossible for Anwar to ignore race and religion, as there is strong resistance from his ally Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) about taking power with the support of mostly non-Malay and non-Muslim MPs.

Further, recent surveys have shown that a significant segment of the Malay community is ambivalent about Anwar.

Of the total 222 MPs, 131 are Muslims, comprising 88 from the BN and 43 from the opposition Pakatan Rakyat.

To have a majority Muslim government, more than half the defecting MPs must be Muslim. But even that would be too small a majority. In reality, it has to be a lot more.

These calculations, and the fence-sitting tendencies of the BN MPs, highlight the difficulties Anwar faces in getting enough defections in the right racial ratios to form a stable government.

Analysts are divided on whether he has the numbers. His own party has issued mixed signals, saying that September 16 is not the ultimate deadline.

That has the twin effect of lowering expectations while keeping the psychological war going. In all likelihood, the aim is to get a few across first to start a snowball effect.

It is a masterful game that has kept Malaysians on tenterhooks, forcing the BN to constantly overreact.

Anwar has become a larger-than-life persona, in one of the biggest political comeback stories in Malaysia after he was sacked and jailed a decade ago.

Freed in 2004, the former deputy premier shaped the disparate opposition into a formidable force that did serious damage to the once invincible BN, plunging Malaysia into political flux.

Anwar is in a hurry, as he cannot afford to wait until the next general election due only in 2013. He has a sodomy charge hanging over him. More seriously, there are real doubts if his Pakatan coalition can hold together in the long term.

So far, its squabbles have been papered over, but more will surface as its partners--the Islamic PAS and Chinese-based Democratic Action Party--are on opposite ends ideologically.

Anwar has also not fleshed out election pledges such as scrapping the pro-Malay economic policies or cheaper fuel.

Time is not on his side. At present, the circumstances favour him as the BN is in a mess. His Pakatan still looks fresh while the BN looks old and tired, mired in bitter fights.

But this may not be the case a few years from now.

September 16 is just a day away, but do not count on it being the final word on Malaysian politics. If it dawns and sets with Abdullah still as prime minister, it does not mean that Anwar has given up.

If Anwar succeeds, the BN has enough resources at its fingertips to fight back.

Malaysia is in for a long haul. (By CAROLYN HONG/ The Straits Times)