BEIJING, CHINA: A seismologist warned more than five years ago that a strong earthquake was likely in Sichuan based on historical records and animal studies.

“Sichuan is virtually certain to experience an earthquake measuring above 7 in the next few years,” Chen Xuezhong, a senior researcher with the geophysics institute of State Seismological Bureau (SSB), wrote in a paper published in December 2002, in the periodical Recent Developments in World Seismology.

The article, which is still available online, stated that Sichuan had a big chance of being hit by a huge temblor due to its geographic location and records since 1800 showed the average interval between major quakes in the province was about 16 years.

Since 1900, the area had experienced frequent big temblors, and records showed the longest interval between them was 19 years, with the average being 11 years, the paper said.

Zhang Guomin, another researcher with the SSB’s earthquake science institute, also said Wenchuan is prone to earthquakes as it is on a major fault line—the south-north fault line that runs from Yunnan to Ningxia. The county is also on a small fault line known as the Longmen mountain earthquake belt, he said.

The 7.8-magnitude killer quake, which was also felt in some parts of Thailand, Taiwan and Viet Nam, has killed at least 10,000 people as of press time. (By ZHU ZHE/ China Daily/ AsiaNews)